Steroids and Major League Baseball

Major League Baseball has become not only a part of Americana, but a way of sharing passions that span generations, geography and social class. When you look back at the history of baseball, it is a representative of a simpler and purer world. The Steroid Era of 1994 - 2004 corrupted that view, as major league baseball statistics rose dramatically. I guess it all started when Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa raced to beat Roger Maris's single season homerun record of 61 back in 1998.

The sudden rise in individual baseball achievements raised questions about how they were being achieved.

Was it the baseball? I remember the rumors that the balls were being made differently, that they were being wrapped tighter or dried out so they would fly out of the stadium.

It wasn't until 1998 when the rumors of steroid use among players came to light when it was discovered that Mark McGwire was taking androstenedione.

Performance Enhanced Drugs In Sports
The use of performance enhancing drugs appears to be tied directly with mass-entertainment sports. It goes all the way back to the ancient Olympics when athletes used herbs and mushrooms in order to improve their performance in competition. In the modern day, with the increase of commercial endorsements and off-the-field rewards, the use of performance enhancing drugs began to escalate.

Steroid use became a banned substance in 1991 but testing didn't begin until the 2003 season. The powerful Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) consistently rejected MLB's recommendations to test for steroids. The initial testing of performance enhancing drugs did not dissuade the players from using it. It wasn't until pressure from Congress and the public in 2005, and a harder stance on performance enhancing drugs, that its use began to fall.

The use of performance enhancing drugs had some interesting effects on the game. Along with the jump in offense related baseball achievements, the nature and frequency of injuries began to escalate. The number of players on the Disable List (DL) increased 31% from 1989 to 1998 and he average stay on the DL increased 13% over the same period. The nature of the injuries changed due to oversized muscles ripping away from the bones that could no longer support them. It wasn't until Ken Caminiti became the first star to admit using steroids.

It wasn't until 2005 that MLB and the MLBPA agreed on a new drug testing policy. The new policy, currently in effect, includes year-round testing and stricter penalties for steroid use but still pales in comparison to other sports. Penalties for positive tests now results in a mandatory 50 game ban for the first offense, 100 game ban for the second offense and lifetime ban, with the possibility for reinstatement, for the third positive test.


Measuring the Effect of Steroids On Baseball
In 2007 a study conducted by Berkley University, "Steroid Use In Major League Baseball" lead by Mitchell Grossman, the researchers set out to measure the effect of steroids on Major League Baseball.

The study developed a measure called On-base prowess (OPS). It combined two offensive baseball statistics, that most baseball experts agree, are the best measure of a players offense ability - On Base Percentage (OBP) and Slugging Percentage (SLG)

OPS = OBP + SLG
OBP = Hits (H) + Bases on Balls (BB) + Hit By Pitch (HBP) / At Bats (AB) + Bases on Balls (BB) + Sacrifices (SF) + Hit By Pitch (HBP)
SLG = Total Bases (1B + 2*2B + 3*3B + 4+HR) / At Bats (AB)
where 1B = single, 2B = Double, 3B = Triple and HR = Homerun
(baseball scorekeeping ebook)

The team of experts devised two methods to determine the effect of steroids on a players OPS. They defined a Pre-Steroid Era (1985-1993) and a post Season era (1994-2004). They compiled the OPS statistics for all players in those years. Batters with less than 100 At bats (ABs) and pitchers were excluded.

The results shows that average OPS in the Pre-Steroid Era was .738, .048 less than than the average OPS in the Steroid Era, .784. This statistic gives us some sense of the effect of steroids but it doesn't really compare a steroid user "before-and-after" steroid use.

The second method used was what they called the Steroid Seven Method. Using the same parameters, the study singled out 7 players in the Steroid era who admitted to or was suspected of using steroids. Rather than compare the players performance in the two eras, they used their statistics of the last few years of the Steroid Era (2001-2004) and compared that to the first year of the Post-Steroids Era (2005). While not all the players saw a significant change in OPS over that time period, the average change in OPS was a decrease of .160.

Although these methods are not exact, they do represent a good approximation of the effect of steroid use in Baseball. The average of the All Player Method .048 and the Steroid Seven Method .160 equals a .104 OPS average.

Using the OPS calculations, estimations can be made on the effect of steroid use on a player' salary. First, they needed to determine the effect of increased OPS on a player's salary. The study used the 2004 statistics for a regression of OPS vs salaries for 2004. From this regression it was determined that an increase in OPS of .100 leads to an increase in salary of $2 million. Therefore, the average increase in OPS due to steroids of .104 leads to an additional salary of $2,085,438.

The benefits of increased offensive production to major league baseball during the Steroid-era was dramatic. The average MLB franchise value rose from $140 million in 1994 to $332 million in 2004.

The conclusion of the study suggests the players, MLB franchises and even the media all benefitted from steroid use. However, there were negative implications for all three groups due to the scandal.

Let's hope we have all learned a lesson!



source: "Steroids and Major League Baseball" by Mitchell Grossman, Timothy Kimsey, Joshua Moreen and Matthew Owings